Setting

San Diego County, the second most populous county in California, is situated south of Riverside and Orange Counties, west of Imperial County, east of the Pacific Ocean, and north of Mexico. The County ranks 16th in population of all metropolitan areas in the United States. The population of the County in 1997 was 2,794,437, which comprised approximately 8.3 percent of California’s total population. According to San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) Series 8 Regional Growth forecasts, the County population will continue to increase over the next several years. Projected population of the County in 2000 is 3,004,000 and 3,763,300 in 2015 (SANDAG, 1998a).

In 1997, the County had a total of approximately 1,014,859 housing units, with a vacancy rate of 6.21 percent. The population per household at the time was 2.83. The projected number of housing units is anticipated to increase to 1,372,000 in 2015. As with many large urban areas, housing availability and affordability and vacancy rates vary substantially within the County.

The Encina Power Plant is located in the northwestern portion of San Diego County, in the City of Carlsbad. As with the entire San Diego region, the city is expected to grow in the next 10 years. According to SANDAG (1998b), the estimated population of Carlsbad in 1990 was 63,126 and 70,099 in 1997. The population of Carlsbad is projected to be 135,014 in 2015. This is an estimated 114 percent increase in population between 1990 and 2015. The housing stock in Carlsbad as of 1990 consisted of 27,235 units, with a vacancy rate of 8.22 percent. Population per household in Carlsbad in 1990 was 2.47 and is projected to be 2.46 in 2015.

The South Bay Power Plant is located in southwestern San Diego County, in the City of Chula Vista. The population of Chula Vista in 1997 was 156,148, a 16 percent increase from its 1990 population of 135,163 (SANDAG, 1998c). The estimated population in 2015 is 173,001. The housing stock in Chula Vista in 1997 was 55,258 units and is anticipated to increase to 61,047 units in 2015. The vacancy rate in 1997 was 4.1 percent and had remained unchanged since 1990. Population per household in Chula Vista as of 1997 was 2.92.

Fourteen of the SDG&E combustion turbines (CTs) proposed for sale are located at five sites throughout the City of San Diego. These sites are the Division Substation, the Kearny Construction and Operation Center, the Miramar Yard, and the United States Navy’s Naval Station site and Naval Training Center. The City of San Diego, the sixth most populous city in the nation, had a population of 1,197,077 in 1997, an 8 percent increase from its 1990 population (SANDAG, 1998d). Expected population of San Diego in 2015 is 1,573,656. Housing units in San Diego totaled 457,231 in January 1997 and are anticipated to increase to 591,437 in 2015. The vacancy rate was 5.9 percent in January 1997, and population per household was 2.68.

The El Cajon Substation CT is located in western San Diego County, in the City of El Cajon. The population of El Cajon in January 1997 was 92,638, up from 88,693 in 1990, an increase of 4.4 percent (SANDAG, 1998e). The expected population in 2015 is projected to be 95,757. The existing housing stock in El Cajon as of January 1997 was 34,838, an increase of only 1.1 percent from 1990. The vacancy rate remained at 4.5 percent during that seven-year period. Population per household in El Cajon as of January 1997 was 2.73.

Two CTs are located at the North Island Naval Air Station in the City of Coronado, in San Diego County. The estimated population of Coronado in January 1997 was 29,229, up from 26,540 in January 1990, an increase of 10.1 percent in seven years (SANDAG, 1998f). Projected population of Coronado in 2015 is 30,118. The existing housing stock in Coronado as of January 1997 was 9,538 units, with a vacancy rate of 19.5 percent, a decrease of 2 percent from 1990. Population per household in Coronado in January 1997 was 2.33.

The 24th Street Terminal Refueling Facility is located in southwestern San Diego County, in the City of National City. The population of National City in 1997 was 56,408, an increase of 4 percent from 1990 (SANDAG, 1998g). It is projected that the National City population will increase to 62,866 by 2015. The existing housing stock in National City as of 1997 was 15,485 units, with a vacancy rate of 3.1 percent. Population per household in National City at the time was 3.28.

Checklist Issues

With project approval it is anticipated that the facilities would continue to operate as they do presently, but potentially would produce somewhat higher electrical generation. A small increase in employees could result. However, such increases are expected to be relatively small and would not cause population projections to be exceeded.

Because employment attributable to electrical power generation activities is generally small relative to local and regional employment bases as a whole, the potential for the project to cause substantial regional or local employment changes, and therefore to cause regional or local population projections to be exceeded, is less than significant.

As discussed in checklist item (a), above, a small increase in employees at some or all of the plants and CT sites may result from the project. The continued operation of the power plants and the small potential increase in employees are unlikely to induce substantial growth in the local communities, either directly or indirectly.

It is unlikely that the continued operation of the divested plants and CT sites would induce growth, either directly or indirectly. Therefore, the project’s impact would be less than significant.

The proposed project would not displace existing housing, either directly or indirectly, at the two power plants and CT sites, nor would the project be expected to have substantial effects on local housing demand.

Because the project would not substantially affect any housing conditions, it would result in no impact on local housing stock or markets.

REFERENCES — Population and Housing